College Football Rankings: Schedule Isn't an Important Thing -- It's the Only Thing

Out here in St. Louis we have an institution called Washington University, a school with about 13,000 students that's big on academics -- it's sometimes called the Harvard of the Midwest and it runs a world-class teaching hospital -- but when it comes to athletics, well, not so much. It does participate in inter-collegiate sports, though, and has a football team, the Bears. The Bears' 2010 NCAA Division III schedule: Knox College, Rhodes College, Wittenburg University, Westminster College, Wabash College, College of Wooster, Oberlin College Carnegie Mellon University, Case Western Reserve University, and the University of Chicago.

That schedule is typical of, if not identical to, Washington U. schedules over the years, and it has produced won-lost records that have been generally fair to middling. I don't know that the Bears have ever gone undefeated, but if they were to do so, I believe it's safe to say that no one would deem them, as a result of that unblemished record, the best football team in the United States. Or the 10th best. Or the 100th best.

That's important because it serves to illustrate the single most important component of college football rankings: schedule. Who you play isn't just a part of it. It's all of it. If that were not the case, then
the Washington University Bears, having gone undefeated -- and, perhaps having beaten all of their opponents 55-0 -- would be number one, or contenders for it.

Let us turn now to Boise State University, an institution with about 19,000 students and also a participant in NCAA sports -- a relatively small school in a very small (population-wise) state, and a school whose football program has been characterized by some as being far stronger than it's given credit for and, thus, chronically dealt with unjustly in the rankings  The 2010 schedule of the football team, the Broncos, was as follows: Virginia Tech, Wyoming, Oregon State, New Mexico State, Toledo, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada, and Utah State.

Granted, those opponents are a step or two up from Wabash College and Carnegie Mellon University, but for the same reason that Washington U. beating everyone on its schedule doesn't make it the best team in the country, Boise State beating all the teams on its schedule doesn't indicate that the Broncos are the best football team in the country either. Or the 10th best. Or the 25th best. It's possible that they are the best, but we can't know as long as their schedule consists mainly of the Louisiana Techs and Idahos of the world.

Missouri, a team we're fond of here and one that has gained some national prominence lately, would have, it can reasonably be argued, run roughshod over that schedule. In fact, it pretty much ran roughshod over its actual schedule, which does not include Wyoming or Toledo but which does include Illinois, Texas A&M, San Diego State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. The worst of those are arguably as good as anyone on the Broncos' schedule except Virginia Tech.

Net: There will probably be a good many teams, among the thousands of college football teams, that will be undefeated this year, including Boise State. But hardly any of them will be contenders for a national
championship.